Relevance of the project:

The conceptual idea of the project is based on the synthesis of demographic and sociological information in order to identify regional clusters of fertility and substantiate promising scenarios of socio-demographic development of Kazakhstan. For the first time, Kazakhs have become the majority of the urban population and now determine the vector of demographic development. It is planned to study the reproductive attitudes of urban Kazakh women as the basis of reproductive behavior - it is women who determine the main content of fertility processes.

The demographic block of the project is based on the analysis of statistical materials, the sociological block is based on data obtained during a sociological study. The implementation of this project will allow predicting the reproductive behavior of the population of Kazakhstan with higher accuracy and reliability. The results of the project can be used as a basis for long-term planning of social and economic development of territories.

The purpose of the project: to identify regional peculiarities of reproductive behavior of the urban population of Kazakhstan based on the analysis of fertility rates and reproductive attitudes of Kazakh women, to substantiate promising scenarios of socio-demographic development of Kazakhstan.

Expected results:

1) Regional clusters of population fertility in dynamics (mid-XX century – the first decades of the XXI century).

2) Correlation analysis of socio-economic and demographic indicators with the identification of regional characteristics of reproductive behavior at the beginning of the XXI century.

3) Substantiation of scenarios of socio-demographic development of the Republic of Kazakhstan on the basis of the data obtained.

4) Development of two digital maps of regional fertility clusters, their presentation on the university's website.

5) Analytical report of the three-year sociological study "Reproductive attitudes of urban Kazakh women in the conditions of modernization".

6) Testing of research findings in the framework of scientific and methodological webinars in the republican and international scientific community.

7) The program of the training seminar on the development of projects of socio-economic development of regions for representatives of state bodies and public organizations.

8) Publication of one article or review in a peer-reviewed scientific publication indexed in the Social Science Citation Index, Arts and Humanities Citation Index and (or) Russian Science Citation Index of the Web of Science database and (or) having a CiteScore percentile in the Scopus database of at least 35.

9) The final report on the results of the implementation of the three-year scientific project.

10) Monograph "Modernization of fertility processes in Kazakhstan (socio-cultural aspect)".

Achieved results:

In accordance with the project's work schedule, all research tasks were implemented and the following results were achieved:

1) A retrospective analysis of the fertility processes of the urban population of Kazakhstan, taking into account the regional characteristics of reproductive behavior based on statistical data (mid-XX century - early XXI century). Regional clusters of Kazakhstan have been developed. (https://demography-kz.shinyapps.io/demography_ru/).

2) The influence of ethnic and socio-cultural factors on the birth rate of the population has been studied. Regional peculiarities of reproductive behavior are determined. The results are reflected in scientific publications.

3) Behavioral content analysis of regional Internet media in thematic areas. Based on the content analysis, a ranked number of factors affecting the reproductive attitudes of the population of Kazakhstan in the regional context has been determined. 1523 informational messages in Russian and Kazakh containing words related to the category "fertility, family, children, large families, divorces, alimony, mortality, domestic violence, bride kidnapping, benefits, etc." were analyzed on 46 regional information websites of 10 cities from 01.01.2020 to 01.01.2021. Popular Internet resources were identified as part of the monitoring of the most active, locally oriented sites when using the systems: https://mediametrics.kz/rating/, https://zero.kz/zerotrends/. The results are published in the collection of analytical materials "The influence of socio-cultural and ethnic factors on the peculiarities of reproductive behavior of the population of Kazakhstan (based on the results of content analysis of regional Internet media)" - Ust-Kamenogorsk, 2021. - 211 p.

4) The tools of sociological research have been developed and tested. The approbation took place in two stages in August 2021 in Ust-Kamenogorsk, Semey, Almaty. The hypothesis of variants of reproductive behavior is formulated.

5) The first stage of field research was conducted in September 2021, "Reproductive attitudes of urban Kazakh women": 10 focus groups and 30 individual in-depth interviews, in total about 100 people were interviewed. An analytical report on the results of a sociological study has been prepared.

6) The results of the first stage of the sociological research are presented at the scientific and methodological webinar "Migration and reproductive behavior in a modernizing society", which took place on October 8, 2021.

https://www.vku.edu.kz/ru/adverts/programma-nauchno-metodologicheskogo-vebinara-migracionnoe-i-reproduktivnoe-povedenie-v.html

https://www.vku.edu.kz/ru/newsitem/v-amanzholov-university-obsudili-osobennosti-sovremennogo-demograficheskogo-razvitiya

7) The interim results of the implementation of the entire project were presented during a scientific internship that took place on October 16-24, 2021 at the Vishnevsky Institute of Demography of the HSE (Moscow, Russia) at the XX International Scientific and Practical Conference "Ethnodemographic processes in Kazakhstan and Adjacent Territories" (October 21-22, 2021) and published in articles by members of the research groups. A collection of scientific papers of this international conference has been published.

https://www.hse.ru/demo/announcements/516725413.html

https://www.vku.edu.kz/ru/adverts/programma-nauchno-metodologicheskogo-vebinara-migracionnoe-i-reproduktivnoe-povedenie-v.html

https://www.vku.edu.kz/ru/newsitem/v-amanzholov-university-obsudili-osobennosti-sovremennogo-demograficheskogo-razvitiya

8) The first chapter of the monograph "Modernization of the birth rate of Kazakhstan (socio-cultural aspect)" has been prepared.

In just 1 year of project implementation, 9 publications were published (including 2 collections, 1 article in scientific publications of the RSCI database, 1 article in a journal recommended by the KKSON of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan, 5 articles in collections of scientific papers of the MNPC).

Members of the research group:

1) Alexander Alekseenko, D.I.N., STS SIC "Altaytanu", ID SCOPUS: 57215212322, ID WEB OF SCIENCE: AAQ -7920-2020.

2) Zhanna Aubakirova, Ph.D., Director of SIC "Altaytanu". SCOPUS ID: 57201672334, WEB OF SCIENCE ID: AAQ - 7920 – 2020 (https://www2.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorId=57201672334 )

3) Eleonora Stolyarova, Candidate of Social Sciences, STS SIC "Altaytanu". ORCID 0000-0003-0722-1589 (https://orcid.org/my-orcid?orcid=0000-0003-0722-1589)

4) Gulzhan Sarsembayeva, Ph.D., Senior lecturer of the Department of History of Kazakhstan;

5) Nelly Krasnobaeva, Ph.D., VNC SIC "Altaytanu".

6) Tamerlane Omirzak, Master of Humanities in the specialty "History".

7) Didara Yessimkhanova, 2-year doctoral student of specialty 6M020300 "History"

List of publications:

1. Sarsembayeva G.A. Features of the birth rate of the Kazakh population in the modern period and the formation of new trends in demographic development // Bulletin of KazNPU. The series "Historical and socio-political sciences". 2021. - No. 2.- pp.40-47.

2. Sarsembayeva G.A. Features of reproductive behavior of Kazakhs in the modern period // Bulletin Almanach Science Association France-Kazakhstan. 2021. Vol. 2. P. 86-94.

3. Krasnobayeva N.L., Sarsembayeva G.A. "Reproductive attitudes of the population of modern Kazakhstan in the context of socio-cultural and ethnic factors (content analysis of regional Internet media) // Materials of the republican scientific and methodological webinar "Promising cross-border cooperation in the activities of the APK departments: ethnointegrative trends". – Aktau, 2021. - pp.232-252.

4. Sarsembayeva G.A. Reproductive attitudes of the population of modern Kazakhstan // Ethnodemographic processes in Kazakhstan and adjacent territories. Collection of scientific papers of the XX International Scientific and Practical Conference, October 21-22, 2021 – Ust-Kamenogorsk-Moscow: "Media Alliance", 2021. - pp. 155-163.

5. Stolyarova E.O., Aubakirova Zh.S. Modern attitudes of urban Kazakh women on the conditions of the birth of children (according to the results of a sociological study) // Ethnodemographic processes in Kazakhstan and adjacent territories. Collection of scientific papers of the XX International Scientific and Practical Conference, October 21-22, 2021 – Ust-Kamenogorsk-Moscow: "Media Alliance", 2021. - pp. 194-202.

6. Aubakirova Zh.S., Alekseenko A. N., Omirzak T. E. Fertility in the processes of reproduction of the population of the Republic of Kazakhstan (ethnic aspect) // Ethnodemographic processes in Kazakhstan and adjacent territories. Collection of scientific papers of the XX International Scientific and Practical Conference, October 21-22, 2021 - Ust–Kamenogorsk-Moscow: Media Alliance, 2021. - pp. 209-217

7. Sarsembayeva G.A., Krasnobayeva N.L. The influence of socio-cultural and ethnic factors on the peculiarities of reproductive behavior of the population of Kazakhstan in the modern period (based on the results of content analysis of regional Internet media)" // Collection of the II-th International Altaic Forum "The Turkic-Mongolian world of the Greater Altai: historical and cultural heritage and modernity" 2021, Barnaul. (confirmation certificate)

8. Sarsembayeva G.A., Krasnobayeva N.L. The influence of socio-cultural and ethnic factors on the peculiarities of reproductive behavior of the population of Kazakhstan (based on the results of content analysis of regional Internet media). Collection of analytical materials. - Ust-Kamenogorsk, 2021. - 211 p.

9. Ethnodemographic processes in Kazakhstan and adjacent territories. Collection of scientific papers of the XX International Scientific and Practical Conference, October 21-22, 2021 Edited by A.N.Alekseenko, J.S. Aubakirova, N.L.Krasnobaeva. – Ust-Kamenogorsk-Moscow. – Ust-Kamenogorsk: "Media Alliance", 2021. – 223 p.